Thursday, September 18, 2008

vote or DIE

A very simple but (I thought) very good point was made to me last night, regarding polling data and Obama's numbers. Pollsters often get their data by calling landline phones at dinnertime, which inadvertently leaves out an important segment of the population: the cellphone-reliant youth vote. Several people in the 18-24 bracket (including yours truly) are sans landline phones. Therefore, a lot of national polling data doesn't include an important and very large segment of Obama supporters.

In years past, this hasn't been been hugely important because the youth vote has a pitiful turnout rate on election day. But this year, that could change.

Point being: never mind the women's vote or the blue collar vote as the game changer in the election. I think if the youth vote turns out in record numbers (or if they don't) it will make a world of difference about how close this election will be.


Virginia Harris said...
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ashnkr said...

I'm not really convinced by this argument because Obama was leading Clinton a lot in this bracket too. Yet he did not do significantly better than his pre-poll expectations.

Kishori said...

I think that's a fair point but I also there's a huge difference in the level of participation when it comes to the primaries and when it comes to the general election, especially when it comes to younger voters, and even more so when you account for undecided or swing voters in that age bracket who may not have wanted to vote for a specific party as of yet.